The Drudge Report called it “Over the Top Tuesday” for Barack Hussein Obama, the day Obama finally ended the Democrats’ war of attrition. Drudge’s choice of words invoked Gallipolis and All Quiet on the Western Front, while adulation and cheers from other media outlets invoked radio and TV in North Korea. However, it was Hillary Clinton’s campaign- and indeed, her political relevancy- that was mowed down in no-man’s land. Tuesday night’s delegate count and Saturday’s concession by Hillary made official and final the demise of one of the largest, most-powerful, best-funded, and frankly ruthless political machines in recent American history- and certainly within the Democratic Party. Her failure to capture a nomination which by the beginning of the campaign was thought to be inevitably hers represents a political choke for the ages.
Her epic collapse contains just about all the hallmarks of a spectacularly futile pennant race, seen with the 1951 Brooklyn Dodgers, the 1964 Philadelphia Phillies, or the 1978 Boston Red Sox. Each enjoyed sizeable if not insurmountable leads throughout the season, each drastically underestimated their competition, each was brought down by what could be considered a fatal flaw, and each was beset by panic once it became too late. This was true of Hillary as well, who enjoyed a 20 point lead, according to the Real Clear Politics average, once she entered the race in January 2007. Her preseason lead ballooned to 28 points by mid-October, and the historic Democratic nomination race appeared over before it started. In a crowded field full of name recognition, Hillary polled a near majority with 48.4%. In addition, Hillary had a boatload of cash, just about every pledged elected official to her name, and the nostalgia and sheer power of the Clinton machine.
Hillary’s collapse began, however, once the first pitch of the Iowa Caucuses was thrown. She not only underestimated her competition- this time taking the form of old news candidate John Edwards and some skinny freshman Senator from Illinois with a funny name- she also underestimate the sheer number of Democratic voters, left-wing grass roots members, and the media who had simply had enough of Hillary and her husband. As a shock to just about everyone, Hillary- the inevitable, all-powerful behemoth of a candidate- finished third. What had started as anti-Clinton whispers in Iowa slowly started gathering voices. Hillary cried and then tied Obama in New Hampshire before gathering her first outright (if not uncontested) victories in Michigan and Florida. By South Carolina’s contest on January 26, a full-on chorus not only against Hillary but for Obama had gathered. Unbeknownst to just about everybody, the choke was on.
Super Tuesday was still supposed to be Hillary’s “Over the Top Tuesday,” with an unprecedented number of delegates, several large states polling favorably for her, and a national lead that was still intact. Indeed, Hillary scored impressive victories in her home state(s), engineered a major political coup by winning Massachusetts- where Ted Kennedy endorsed Barack Obama- and collected the big prize out west, California. Nine election seasons out of ten, these and other victories she notched would be enough to snuff out a tough challenge from a political upstart. But Obama strung together lopsided victories in small states and caucuses, and forged a statistical tie (and an actual victory) when the dust finally settled on Super Tuesday.
Hillary’s fatal flaws were obvious, to say the least, and took the form of her own personal and political baggage, and of course, her (in)famous husband. Bill’s antics and missteps on the campaign trail supplied a plethora of sound bites and news clips which sunk Hillary’s campaign. His attempt to marginalize Barack Obama by comparing him to Jesse Jackson, who “won South Carolina in ’84 and ’88,” backfired dramatically. His temper tantrums and overreactions to questioners and hecklers only made things worse. Political commentators almost enjoyed beating up the star-crossed pair, calling Hillary’s would-be administration a “co-presidency” at the kindest, and exclaiming that “the circus is back in town,” at the most brutal. Bill’s uncontrollable, unpredictable prima donna nature not only doomed Hillary’s presidential campaign, it also seriously handicaps any effort for her in the future, to say nothing about a “dream ticket” in the fall. To paraphrase another political commentator, the Oval Office simply isn’t big enough for three people who think they should be President.
Panic set in with the Clinton camp after Super Tuesday, when Obama racked up eleven contests in a row, often by rather gigantic margins. Her national polling lead would disappear by Valentines Day and would not return. With clear advantages in money, exposure, and grassroots enthusiasm, Obama appeared ready to deliver a surprising knockout blow to Hillary in Ohio, and take away her pennant, once thought to be in the bag. But a string of surprise victories in large and important states turned a race which had gone from inevitable to spectacular collapse to a fight to the finish. When April rolled around, Hillary had Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, while Obama had Reverend Wright and William Ayers. His failure to close the deal in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky staved off the collapse until Hillary’s last strongholds and trump cards failed her. Obama gained an advantage among superdelegates, which otherwise threatened to throw the Denver convention in to chaos, and the Democratic rules committee delivered the final nail in the Clinton coffin by only seating half of Michigan and Florida’s delegates. On June 3, Obama’s historic victory was complete, as was Hillary’s historic choke.
Perhaps the best evidence to support a choke is to realize how inevitable the Clinton candidacy was. She was the Democratic frontrunner- in any campaign- by as early as January 2001, when George Bush was inaugurated for the first time. Even her Senate victory the preceding November dropped hints that she wouldn’t stay in Chappaqua for long. Once tears developed in Chris Matthews’ eyes when Ohio was called for Bush instead of Kerry, everyone knew Hillary’s run for the White House would be on in 2008. All that had to happen was for Hillary’s token opposition, in this case an unknown but passionate state senator from Chicago, to go the way of Bill Bradley. But while Hillary was at Bed Bath & Beyond selecting the Oval Office curtains, a real race had developed with Barack Obama. What was first billed as David versus Goliath soon turned out as one-sided and over-hyped as Dan versus Dave. Oh, she might be disappointed now, and she may pity whoever runs against her next time, but she won’t be back to go for the gold in four years.
