Swimming in the Candidate Pool...

First things first, I have been just plain lazy with regards to updates on RSR since the elections last Tuesday. Part of this has been due to fatigue, but a lot has been due to a much-needed catching up with life in general, something put by the wayside during election season. A few friends counted me for dead, family had not seen me in months, and the girlfriend was on the verge of quitting that post, so I needed to get back to being a human being again. Anyhow, I have done much thinking and deliberation about the election itself and the ramifications of it, the upcoming CRNC elections, board meeting, and amendments, and, finally, the various upcoming state and national races. Before I get to that, I have also been in discussions with my hometown newspaper, for which I formerly authored a column until the editor left for greener pastures. Since then, I have not had time to write anything for them further, or to even contact the new guy about submitting new work. I have done so over the past week, and I think that the tentative working arrangement is that there is a strong possibility of me penning several upcoming guest columns for possible publication, and we will see where it goes from there. Anyhow, I will keep news of this coming as it develops, and if/when it happens, I will be sure to link to the pieces on this blog. And now, back to regularly scheduled programming.
Since I last wrote, Ken Mehlman (RNC Chairman) has stepped down from his post and has already been replaced by freshman Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL), who will be supplemented by someone else running the day-to-day. Many blogs and pundits have speculated that Mehlman stepped down in the wake of his outing as a homosexual on Larry King Live, but I don't think that was the case. No one was talking about that at all, and even if Mehlman is gay, it should not matter one iota. I would have liked to see someone like Maryland's Michael Steele get the nod for the post, but the Bush team rewards loyalty, and Martinez possesses this as a former Bush Admin. Secretary of HUD. We will see how this plays out (and in Peoria), as the jury in my mind is still out.
Also, the Dept. of Defense has (awaiting confirmation) a new Secretary, Robert Gates, as well, after Donald Rumsfeld stepped down last Wednesday. I both like this and dislike it, as I think his resignation takes away a punching bag and gives the Democrats a chance of developing a bad case of bloodlust. Rumsfeld has done a very good job in terms of transforming the military into a leaner, more agile fighting force, but he has been a pinata of sorts for everything gone wrong in Iraq (Generals with good strategy would be nice! We need a Patton or Sherman badly.). As a friend of mine once said, "If you take yourself down, they cannot keep swinging at you." (Originally spoken about the great Ohioan Brad Hicks, whom I dearly love.) It will also be intriguing to see this one play out, as Gates is an alumnus of Bush 41 (Dir. CIA), and more of HW's staffers and cabinet are coming back into play (James Baker, Brent Scowcroft, etc.) . Rumsfeld will reportedly be indicted in Germany by two enterprising NYC attorneys on war crimes charges (this is a complete joke).
Finally, for now at least, I want to jump cannonball-style into the murky waters we like to call the candidate pool, for several different races. Most prominently, now that the RNC is locked up, is the GOP primary field for the Presidency in '08. It is effectively only a few months until serious campaigning will begin (the past few months of stumping for GOP candidates is what we call "building up a list of favors"), and in a little over a year, primary season kicks off. Already, on our side of the aisle, we have seen several big guns decline interest, including outgoing Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, outgoing Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Vice-Pres. Dick Cheney, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, and many other Governors. I would think that outgoing Virginia Sen. George Allen is essentially dead in the water as well, and I cannot see Sec. of State Condoleeza Rice entering the fray. We already know that California's US Rep. Duncan Hunter is running (I can't see him being a serious contender), and former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain will be running, a la their forming of Exploratory Cmtes. Mitt Romney will be following suit soon, to be sure, and I would expect former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson to do so as well. The only one seeming to talk about Thompson is himself however, so I cannot see him catching on with too many supporters outside Wisconsin. I will be extremely surprised if outgoing New York Gov. George Pataki, outgoing Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist, and Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo do not at least file exploratory committees, as well, and I fully expect Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to take the plunge. Pataki is not one that I see resonating with many voters, and Frist really does not have a very wide appeal (or name recognition, even after time as Majority Leader). Tancredo may gain support, but his campaign will largely be a one-issue run on immigration. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel will also test the waters, with Gingrich being the most unlikely, but most viable of the three (and probably the best chance outside of McCain, Romney, and Giuliani to win the thing). Brownback has a clear constituency with Religious Right voters, and Hagel can take the few anti-war GOPers that McCain doesn't get to first, but neither will achieve broad support unless something drastic happens. As always there will be wildcards, but none have availed themselves at this point. Possibilities here would be those no one has even mentioned to this point, folks like Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, or Missouri Rep. Roy Blunt.
As it stacks up now, I see only five having a serious shot at the nomination. First, the current anointed frontrunner, John McCain, simply because everyone seems to know him, and he is the closest thing we have to someone all Americans listen to. Secondly, Rudy Giuliani, because he is at least as well-known, and is very respected (especially in blue-state NY). Next up would be Mitt Romney, simply because there is a seat at the table for him in the debate and his near-constant campaigning in the past year. The final two are big possibilities, even if they do run. Newt Gingrich would add so much to the race, and he has much to offer in terms of policy and the like. I love the guy, but I don't think he can actually win a nomination. Finally, even though I don't see them achieving broad-based support, Brownback and Huckabee tie for 5th in my mind. Both would fill a void in the field, but both start way back in name recognition and fundraising (at least initially). We will see how this develops.
Next on the list of candidate pools is the June 2007 election for CRNC Chairman. Everyone knows who I like here, but who knows if he will run. This election has only about 60 or so possible candidates, as to my knowledge, only members of the CRNC Executive Board or State Fed. Chairmen/Natl. Committeemen can run. Until he states otherwise, one has to assume that current Chairman H. Paul Gourley will be gunning for re-election. It has been widely reported that CRNC Treasurer Tom Robins of Utah will not be running (obviously not if Gourley runs again), but I am still not sold on this one.
Colorado's Charlie Smith has been attempting to woo supporters for months now, but apparently is having trouble on this front. Same goes for Washington's Brent Ludeman, who has come under much fire on other blogs for failing to come through on promises made in his successful campaign for Western Caucus Chairman. Evidently, Illinois' John Donnelly is being floated around as well, with a recent YouTube video making waves. Kentucky's Hugh Derek Hall should be coming back into play after successfully managing a Congressional race this fall (one of the few!), and he was talked about quite a bit last spring. He didn't keep his spot as National Committeeman for nothing, after all. The kid is very likable, and damn impressive to be sure. The jury is out on Michigan's Dan Carlson as well, who is getting pub (good and a lot of bad) with regards to the proposed CRNC amendments.
If we are going by the states who experienced success last week, there are really only two or three, and only two that have been mentioned as Chairman candidates. California's Mason Harrison was obviously a winner due to Arnold's landslide (bad term for California, I admit) re-election. This is not Mason's only upside, but there are certainly some who would not vote for another kid from Cali (though I am not quite sure why). Tennessee saw Bob Corker keep hold of Frist's Senate seat, but Lindsay Moffett is probably not going to be Chairman. Maine's Nate Walton is one to watch, as he apparently had quite a bit to do with gains made in their State Senate. I don't see him running if Gourley or Robins are in the race, but he would definitely make a ticket.
Others who have been mentioned are Nevada's George Higgins (reportedly is waiting to be asked; he will probably be waiting for awhile, not that that makes him a bad candidate), New Mexico's Scott Darnell (probably not happening), Virginia's outgoing Andrew Lamar, and Nebraska's Scott Strain. Pennsylvania's Nick Miccarelli is always a name bantered about, but I don't see that one as much as a few months back, even though he has garnered much media attention outside of CRs.
As both sides fight it out to see who is going to be 'their guy', most of these names are going to have to settle (or be bought off with) lower ticket spots. This would be a good place to put some of the Chairs who have been around since my high-school days, the careerists, and the just plain power-hungry (only because you cannot just throw them off of a cliff). It is going to be interesting indeed to see how this shakes out. Some chairs just have their own state (or themselves) talking them up, others are being slandered and castigated on blogs because of a perception that they may run, and others are sitting around waiting for someone to ask them to the proverbial dance. The December Board Meeting looms ahead, and there will be no shortage of politicking in Denver.
The final candidate pool I will wade into for now is the one already emerging for Ohio's 2010 elections. Mike DeWine and Betty Montgomery have both spoken of unfinished business and continued public service, and I doubt either is finished. The sky is most certainly the limit for Auditor-elect Mary Taylor, and I hope that Tom Raga finds his way back somewhere (the man is simply brilliant). Just like Raga, I hope that Jim Trakas is not finished (could he knock off Kucinich?), and his replacement in the Ohio House, Josh Mandel seems a quickly-rising star. John Kasich will always be in the discussion, but no one is ultimately sure of his return. Some say that Jim Petro and Ken Blackwell are not done yet, but I see differently. Petro could run for Senate, but I hear he is looking to retire. As great as Ken is, and as much I agree with his views, I do not see him returning either after the scorched earth of this fall. Rob Portman, now running the Budget Office for Bush, could also make a return to the state scene at some point, too. I would not be too opposed to outgoing LG Bruce Johnson or ex-Gov. Nancy Hollister coming back, either. We shall see...