NCAA Picks for the weekend

So, Virginia Tech is not dead and buried after all, as they beat up on #10 Clemson last night in Blacksburg. Evidently Hokie fans are less than sportsmanlike because Tiger Coach Tommy Bowden was struck in the back of the head with a glass bottle. Hey, you have to get rid of your emtpies somehow, right? Anyhow, there are plenty of big games tomorrow, including two big rivalries, Florida vs. Georgia (or the Game Formlerly known as The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party) and Notre Dame vs. Navy (Navy has lost 42 games in a row to the Fighting Irish). #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan should both roll to fairly easy victories over conference opponents Minnesota and Northwestern, respectively, en route to their already much-hyped matchup next month in Columbus. Minnesota nearly lost to I-AA North Dakota State last week, and Northwestern was on the wrong side of a 35-point second half Michigan State comeback last Saturday. Here are a few games worth watching this weekend, and my predictions for them:

Michigan State at Indiana (Noon on ESPN Plus)
Both of these teams need to pick up two more wins in the last month of the season to become bowl-eligible, so this game is meaningful for the first time in a few years. Michigan State would be the clear favorite any other year, but these Hoosiers are respectable. Aside from a steamrolling in Columbus at the hands of the Buckeyes, the past month has been a good one for them. , beating Iowa and Illinois. The Spartans have been downright awful, until the record-breaking comeback against Northwestern last week. QB Drew Stanton seemed to get himself back on track, and he should be getting WR Matt Trannon back into his arsenal tomorrow. Defense is not their strongpoint, however, and redshirt frosh QB Kellen Lewis will try to get the Hoosiers on the scoreboard early and often. Lewis has been a shot of life for the Hoosiers, and he is a dual-threat QB, something Michigan State has had problems defending. There won't be much defense in this one, and barring a torrential downpour, it should be an aerial shootout. Michigan State will pull it off, something like 35-27, as they have the edge in experience and leadership at this point.


Northern Illinois at Iowa (12:03 on ESPN U)
Iowa has done nothing to validate expectations of being players on the national scene this fall, as they have lost convincingly to Ohio State, Michigan, and were even knocked by Indiana in Iowa City a few weeks back. QB Drew Tate is out again this weekend, and the last time the Hawkeyes missed Tate, at Syracuse earlier this season, the offense struggled. Look for 5th-year senior Jason Manson to get the start, but if he struggles like he did with the Orangemen, Coach Kirk Ferentz will take to opportunity to get next year's starter Jake Christensen some experience. The Hawkeyes have had problems with motivation and defense so far this season, and Northern Illinois will come to town hoping to take advantage of this. Between Heisman candidate RB Garrett Wolfe, who has shredded his opponents for 1413 yards and 13 TDs this season, and QB Phil Horvath, who has completed 61% of his passes for 1541 yards and 9 TDs, the Huskies have the ability to light up the scoreboard. Wolfe has seen success against everyone this season, even #1 OSU, so expect for him to put up big numbers on the ground as usual. The key will to pulling the upset off will be the Huskie D stopping Iowa from getting into a rhythm early on. The Hawkeyes have been vulnerable to the upset so far, with near-misses against Iowa State and Syracuse, and the Indiana stunner two weeks back. I see Wolfe getting close to 200 yards and striking early, which will propel the Huskies to beat Iowa 31-17.

#8 Tennessee at South Carolina (7:45 on CBS)
The big storyline that everyone is talking about here is Steve Spurrier, who is hosting the Volunteers for the first time as head man of the Gamecocks. Spurrier did beat Tennessee in Knoxville last fall, and he is personally 8-2 in his last 10 tries against them. Tennessee is missing leading rusher LaMarcus Coker this week, and while South Carolina will not blow anyone away on offense, their defense has been stout this season. Converted WR Syvelle Newton is back this year at QB for Spurrier, and he can do it all, but not all of the time. If Newton continues to show a better grasp of the offense, it would bode well for their chances. The Vols' hopes will rest on the shoulders of Erik Ainge, who has been very capable in his second season as the starter at QB and has a great group of targets. This should be a relatively low-scoring contest, and would seem to be a bigger game for the other USC, as it would show just how far they have come under the Ole' Ball Coach. A loss by the Vols would seriously hamper their shot at making it to the SEC title game, while giving the Gamecocks the inside track to win the East. This Tennessee team is much improved over the one that lost last year, but Spurrier being on the sidelines (and being at home) will keep it close. This game could go to OT, and would be a lot different if Coker were healthy, but I still see Tennessee winning a close one on the road, 20-17. (Cue Rocky Top here.)

Georgia at #9 Florida (3:30 on CBS)
While school administrators have dropped promotion of this rivalry as, "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" to curb underage drinking (dropping a name is not going to stop college kids from pre-gaming), these two schools are bitter rivals still. Georgia has had somewhat of a tough year, and there is mounting pressure on Coach Mark Richt. The defense had been the strongpoint for a team rebuilding on offense, but then they were torched by Tennessee for 51 points and have yet to recover in losing to Vanderbilt and barely beating Mississippi State. Having to prepare for two very good Gator quarterbacks in senior Chris Leak and freshman Tim Tebow, who have alternated beautifully for Coach Urban Meyer, does not help the Bulldogs in trying to get back on track. While Richt finally has a clear starter at his own QB spot in Matthew Stafford, the fact that he is a freshman facing a very good Gator D also does not help the Georgia case. This game will be a lot closer next season once Stafford is a little more experienced, and the rest of the team has grown up around him. For now, though, look for the Gators to win handily, something to the tune of 38-10, but if you are in the neighborhood, stop in for the tailgates, some of the best in the SEC all season. A win will also keep Florida in the hunt for an SEC title, and an outside shot at a BCS championship.

#11 Notre Dame at Navy (Noon on CBS)
#3 USC at Oregon State (3:30 on ABC?)
Neither USC nor Notre Dame have been consistently impressive this year so far, and it feels every week like this will be the week they lose, but I cannot see it happening this week. Navy lost their QB, Brian Hampton, two weeks ago against Rutgers, and the Beavers are waiting to see if RB Yvenson Bernard will play. For these two teams that rely heavily on the run, collectively losing leading rushers does not help their chances. Both of them are at home, which helps, but USC is healthy, and Notre Dame has one of the nation's best passing attacks. I see USC having the tougher fight but will still win to the tune of about 28-14, and the Irish will roll 31-17.

Miami (FL) at #21 Georgia Tech (3:30 on ABC)
Sitting at 5-2 would be great for most teams (Georgia Tech, for example), but for Miami, who had National Title hopes and has been a premier program for years, it has Coach Larry Coker on the hotseat. Miami has even struggled in their 5 wins, barely beating Houston and Duke, and the much talked about brawl with Florida International two weeks ago. The 'Canes do return 13 players that were suspended last week, but the return of key WR Ryan Moore from indefinite suspension is up in the air. Moore has yet to play this season, but was reinstated this week, and is eligible to play, even while facing possible felony charges. The Yellow Jackets were blitzed at Clemson last week, and barely lost to Notre Dame in the opener, but they are sitting atop the ACC's Coastal Division, which is weak this year. Clemson was able to run roughshod over them last Saturday night, but the Hurricanes do not have that sort of dominant ground game, which helps out Tech. Reggie Ball, who has been around forever, has been reliable this season, and it helps to have future NFLer Calvin Johnson to throw to. Miami needs a huge game from QB Kyle Wright to have a chance, with their lack of a consistent rusher and unproven receiving corps. If Miami loses, they will fall to 2-2 in the division; if the Yellow Jackets win, they should be able to cruise to a berth in the ACC title game. Look for it to stay fairly close for all four quarters, but a more talented group of receivers and a better running game for Georgia Tech will be the difference. I see the Yellow Jackets winning 24-17 over the 'Canes.

#19 Oklahoma at #23 Missouri (Noon on ABC)
A few weeks back, this looked to be a huge matchup in the Big XII, but it has lost some luster after a Missouri loss at Texas A&M and Oklahoma dropping to Texas. The Sooners also are without star RB Adrian Peterson until their bowl game, and the Tigers lost senior sackmaster DE Brian Smith last week. These two are NFL-caliber talents, and will be playing on Sundays soon, but for now, their teams have to go on without them. Missouri's sophomore QB Chase Daniels has been lighting up opposing defenses, passing for 2003 total yards and 19 TDs while rushing for 247 more yards and 3 TDs. Oklahoma brings the Big XII's top defense to Columbia on Saturday; they are 11th nationally. Missouri is no slouch on that side of the ball, but have struggled against Big XII teams, falling from 1st nationally to 21st, which is still not too shabby. Oklahoma will need to get another good effort from Peterson's fill-in at RB, Allen Patrick, and QB Paul Thompson must not lose the game. Patrick gets to face a sagging run defense, so count on another 100 yard effort behind a solid offensive line, but I think that Daniels will be the difference here at home. With the run game shutdown by the Sooners, Daniels will get plenty of opportunities to air it out. Look for Missouri to win this one by at least 10 points, 31-21, over the Sooners. If Missouri hops ahead early, this could turn into a blowout.

I think that the national trend of ranked teams seeing great success against their unranked counterparts will continue, with the best chance for upsets coming in the Big XII, where #22 Texas A&M goes to Baylor and #20 Nebraska travels to Oklahoma State. Next week will see even more great matchups, especially this coming Thursday, when #4 West Virginia faces #6 Louisville, at Louisville. LSU also visits Tennessee, Oklahoma travels to Texas A&M, and Missouri goes on the road to Nebraska. UCLA plays Cal, South Carolina faces Arkansas, and Wake Forest plays Boston College. Also, congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals, who went from a less-than-stellar second-half effort to win the World Series in five games tonight. Which also means that the off-season is here, and Spring Training begins in just under four months. NASCAR is coming down the home stretch this Sunday at 3:30 on ABC at Atlanta Motor Speedway with Matt Kenseth leading the Chase field towards his second Nextel Cup. Depending on how long the fifth consecutive Super Saturday here in Ohio goes tomorrow, I will have NFL picks to post.